Warning: Loooong postNow I'm hardly the best qualified guy to teach anyone anything about this game, but a couple of situations arose this past week that kinda made me think hard about whether I should post on this topic or not. Well, I decided I would. The topic of the day is profit and profitability from a gambler's point of view. Tough to tackle for a n00b like me, but you can make the call on whether the following's worth reading or not.
I work in the gaming business and am around gamblers daily. I see their ups and downs, triumphs and desperation, and most importantly, get insights into their mindsets.
I was talking to a guy who was on a significant losing streak playing mini-baccarat last week. This is a guy who played a fairly religious betting system, basing his wagers on patterns and hand histories. For those of you who don't know, mini-baccarat is one of the closest things to a coin toss in the world of casino games. You either bet on the player or the banker (or the tie - a sucker bet). The rules of the house favor the banker bet, so the house charges a commission, or "vigorish", to maintain its edge over the player.
Even with the vigorish, the banker bet is the safest bet in baccarat, because the house enjoys only a 1.06% edge over the player in the 8-deck, 5% commission variety. The house has a 1.24% edge on the player bet, and a whopping 14.36% edge on the tie bet (numbers from
The Wizard of Odds).
Now I told this player that in the casino game environment, the player will always be the underdog, but can eke out a positive outcome
in the long run if you stay as close as you can to a 50/50 shot, or the good old coin toss. In the case of mini-baccarat, your true mathematical best shot is to play the banker bet only and work on a betting system to profit from that banker bet. My humble opinion only. He kinda had to think hard about my advice, and made a bunch of statements that revealed he was looking for quick hit every time he visited. I asked him what his bankroll was, how big his big bet was, and how he approached the time factor involved in regular gaming. He couldn't really answer. All he cared about, and all many, many regular gamblers care about, is how much they can extract from the casino in one session.
This type of thinking is pervasive and can lead to ruin. I'm beginning to bang up against this mentality at the poker tables I play. There a lot of new poker players here and they ask me now and again whether or not a play they made was correct. I then go into my regular overly verbose opinions about pot and implied odds, the long term profitability of starting hands, the beauty of skilful position play, table image, etc. The key point I try to hammer home, however, is that if you decide you will regularly wager your money, and you choose to play poker, you're already ahead. Cuz in this great game the gambler can pick his/her spots and develop a mathematical edge over time. There is no "house" advantage. We can't mess with the math. We especially can't beat the math in casino games. We can, however, put the probabilities on our side and thus ensure profit at the poker tables. This is a critical concept, one that has been made over and over again by minds much greater than mine. But this overly long essay is intended for the beginners in the local scene.
So I might as well make a leap and make some recommendation around this issue for the newer players in this great town.
1.
Learn the basics of valuing your starting cards Some cards are garbage, and will not yield a positive expectation over time, while some will be profitable over the long run
regardless of the result of any one hand. If you play 7/2 offsuit in holdem and win when the flop hits you with 7 7 2, then great. Play this over and over again though, and you will, I promise, lose back every penny you won with this hand today and be severely penalized with more lost bets. However, if your AA gets sucked on by Q4o today, I can promise you that you'll earn that back and more over the next hundred times or so that you face this situation. If I could be fortunate enough to be able to make a wager only when I am at least a 51% favorite, I would be a multigazillionaire by the time my kids are in college. Look for those opportunities. Love'em like your mommy.
Use tools to learn what cards are profitable in the long term, the ones that give you that mathematical edge. Use tools like
Pokerstove, books, and good websites to help you get familiar with the relative strength of different hands at their most basic, objective level. Learn the straight up math. There will be a quiz on this at the end of the week ;).
2.
Learn the key concepts of Pot Odds and Implied OddsLearn when you're getting the right price for the right payoff when faced with a call or fold decision. Get comfy with anticipating what the cost/benefit ratios will be as you move through all the betting rounds. I won't go into explaining here - just want you to be aware of the critical importance of these concepts. Most of the poker-related links I have on this blog will either give you the info you need, or lead you to a great site. Again, read books, dammit! This is worth 30% of your final grade ;)
3.
Understand Bankroll ManagementKey, key, key! Because the shuffle is random, you'll invariably experience bad beats, suckouts and strings of losing sessions. You'll need to experience these to learn. But if you're playing solid, knowledgeable poker, your long term expectation of profit will be met. Be patient. But make sure you can afford to be patient. Don't play stakes you can't afford. If you're getting a better ROI than a savings account would give you, keep playing poker. You can read about bankroll management on the web. Make heavy use of google. Read books.
The three points above are long learning endeavors. If you take the time, you'll find yourself a more satisfied player, and will lay the foundation for profit. The next time you play a game, be armed with some of this knowledge. Learn to put your chips in when you have a mathematical edge. Be aware of what you are doing. Remember that you profit when other people make mistakes. There will be lots of mistakes and profitable situations locally, in the short term. Play a LOT of poker. Keep records and spreadsheets. Analyze the living hell out of every key hand you play.
Remember, your profitability should not be measured by how you fare in your next game. Rather, think about profit in terms of your ENTIRE poker career.
Laro Tayo.