How did my predictions fare?

Because I'm a vain bastard, I like to go back in time and read some of the entries i've posted to my blog. Was doing this this morning, and chanced on a post I made in late September, '05. Titled "Nostradamus or Ignoramus", where I boldly made a buncha predictions about local poker. I'll list my predictions here and see how those predictions played out:

1. PAGCOR will run a major cash tournament in a casino in Metro Manila. This event will be televised and will carry a pot of more than 1,000,000. Timeline? within four months

Partly right. The Poker Club of the Philippines ran a tourney in April with a pot reaching 1.6mm. Run in conjunction with PAGCOR, the event drew folks from all over, including those rowdy boys from Bangkok. Champ came from Baguio. This was televised by Solar. I was off by 3 months.

2. After this tourney, a local circuit of cash-tourney poker will kick off, supported by large corporate sponsors and big media - at least cable media...after an initial wave of furor from the moralist camps, it will proceed...This tour will push into the other large urban centers outside Metro Manila. timeline: in 6 months

A bit of a miss, as what developed was not an organic whole, as stated in my original prediction. Rather, a hodgepodge of activities involving some elements. On the local circuit prediciton, the Poker Club of the Philippines has the most unified satellite series going, and they have reached places in the country that nobody else has. Places like Tagaytay, Davao, and Cebu are on the tourney poker map. Large corporate sponsors: Not too many, though I see branded sunglasses, beer, and scotch being promoted in the tourneys quite regularly.

WPT has come to town, and is doing big TV productions...so i guess the prediction is now coalescing into a whole.

. Cardrooms will open under sanction from PAGCOR - the in-casino poker rooms will be run by PAGCOR, while the offsite rooms will be run by Operators acting under license from PAGCOR...rooms will contain between 10-20 tables at the outset. Some major gaming brands from places like Vegas will move in and change the industry. US pros will be spotted partying at Greenbelt and playing cards with us Pinoys. Local poker dealers will be living in posh condos and driving fancy dancy automobiles.

This one's largely a hit.

*Cardrooms will open under sanction from Pagcor: all I can say right now is - *wink *wink, heheheh
*Cardrooms will contain 10-20 tables - only the ACF has 11, which is currently the largest spread in town
*Major gaming brands, US Pros: Jack Binion was here and ran a celebrity charity tourney; Johnny Chan was here; and I hear a rumor that a major California Poker Brand is doing a deal with the ACF
*Local Poker Dealers living in posh condos: OK, not quite yet, but I was talking with a local dealer the other day, a guy who drove a tricycle when I first met him. Grade 6 education. But smart. Lived in a squatter area. Taught him to deal poker and run a floor about 2 years ago. Now he's made a downpayment on some land in filinvest, has no probs educating his kids, has bought a new motorcycle, has some other guy driving his trike for him, has a new TV, appliances for the house, a computer, and get this - has wireless DSL in his sitio!

4. We will witness the emergence of poker geniuses developing locally. These folks will spearhead a Philippine-based player "invasion" of the major US and European tourney circuit. They will pick up sponsorships and live professional poker lives. We will see at least one member of the less-privileged classes make millions in poker. approximately 1% of the total player population in the RP will go pro and will compete internationally.

Yet to happen

5. An online poker boom will develop. We will see the first local online poker site open within 60 days, followed by several more catering to the local market. Not all will be based in the RP, but more than one will certainly target the RP market in conjunction with the broader asian markets.

Just read the blogs in the last couple of months. We've got online jocks already. 11Finger's running a Sunday series of online tourneys. 'Nuff said...

6. A significant merchandising industry will develop - Billiard table manufacturers will get into the table business, importers will move chipsets and cards into this market in a big way, book and DVD sales will boom. The tiangge folks in greenhills will have a heyday with pirated content

Starting, but not too big yet. Though the Kowboys seem to be doing real well

7. Hold 'Em will reign throughout the next two years, but subcultures of Omaha, Stud, etc. players will emerge...US-style poker's here to stay.

The biggest games in town are now going mixed. The above is a natural progression of things. Hold 'Em's still king, though.

It's been, and continues to be, fun to watch all this unfold.

UGEIA Update

I'm keeping tabs on the short and medium term impacts of the recently signed US Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UGEIA). As we all know, the Act was signed by Pres. Bush two Fridays ago Friday, and has caused immediate ripples throughout the Online Gaming Industry.

the London Stock Exchange lost billions in value as its high flying gaming companies took immediate hits shortly after the announcement that the Bill had passed.

Companies, listed on foreign exchanges like the LSE, announced hasty retreats from the US market in moves dictated by their status as public companies.

A number of private companies, though not subject to the same levels of shareholder pressure, have opted to leave the US market.

Many private companies have hung around, and are holding steady, based on their interpretations of the Act.

The Act specifically targets the financial intermediaries, the companies that enable deposits and cashouts from gaming sites.

The Act affects all types of online wagering activities, or rather, zeroes in on the lifeblood of the industry, account funding. In about 260 days the law will be given teeth by enforcement rules.

This is a poker blog, so let's have a look at how poker's been affected. From payment processing on up.

Payment processors. The backbone of the industry are the banks who process credit card transactions. The biggies in the business, Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland, have chosen to comply. Barclays is one of Neteller's major processors, and Neteller has recently announced its withdrawal from the US market. No more 800 lb gorilla. Firepay, another big ewallet player, has ceased taking US and gaming transactions. Another biggie gone. Who's left? Companies like Click2Pay and Citadel are still rockin.

On the poker side, PartyPoker, the Ongame Network, Titan Poker, Paradise, some of the industry giants, have all announced the cessation of US-facing operations.

Companies like Full Tilt, Pokerstars, Doyle's Room, Bodog and some others continue to welcome US business.

I'm too lazy to talk about the sportsbooks and casinos.

What we're witnessing is truly tumultuous, at least in the short term, in this industry. The companies that defined the industry are seemingly retreating. Hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues are being foregone and may shift over to former smaller players. But are these players placing themselves at risk?

Who will the winners be, and how sustainable will their successes be?

WPT Philippines

I certainly won't be the only one writing about this past weekend's WPT Philippines Poker Madness event, held at the ACF. Marco and mnlgrind have already wrapped it up nicely.

All I can say is great job to all involved - and a whole lot of people were involved! Marco and Ed, TV folks, ACF poker staff led by the unflappable Emi Mungcal, and of course the players.

I was lucky enough to have been called last Friday and asked to co-host the final table. I had a blast, and am particularly proud to have been party to the fantastic play and semi-comedic antics of Bryan Malantic as he took the whole thing down.

For those of us who know Bryan, this win is well-deserved and well-earned. He is undoubtedly one of the hardest working guys in local poker, and a fine player to boot.

After this hits the airwaves, he'll also be a pretty famous dude, and will finally realize his chief goal, the main reason he plays poker: gettin' chicks

GG Bryan, GG all...

Freestylin'

A little treat from our trip to Cebu. For those of you who know Mischa, and know he's the B Rabbit of the RP but haven't heard him, here's proof.

World Poker Tour Philippines

Marco and Ed of Poker Bar Tour are putting on the first (well, first open to the public) WPTP event.

Poker Madness is running at the ACF, Saturday Oct. 14, running to the 16th. Yep a 3-day event.

40 minute levels.

Reg at noon, starting gun an 2pm

10K+2K with an addon through to the 4th level (3K for 5K)

Gonna be a good one, and a good chance to hook up...

Curiosity

For me, this week has been marked by curiosity. I'm sitting on a number of questions that are, quite frankly, bugging me about things affecting my life, and the lives of those I care about. This post, then, is really going to be an enumeration of those questions. Perhaps you guys can help me answer some of these.

1. I'm curious as to why, on the ninth day of Typhoon Milenyo's landfall, I am still without power to my residence. I know, I know, many people have been affected in far worse ways than I have - I've simply lost the convenience of electricity, broadband Internet, cable, and suffer through spotty on-again-off-again landline service. Others have lost homes, loved ones, and livelihoods.

But I do have a problem with the fact that I can't get a straight answer from Meralco, or any other service providers, for that matter. Getting through to "hotlines" is tough enough, but cutting through the thick skulls of their CSR's is another thing entirely. Oh, and PLDT had the temerity to bill me the full pop for my phone and Internet service for the upcoming billing period. They've invoiced me in advance for the next month, including 9 days of nonexistent service.

It's not like I live in the sticks; I'm right in the Metro, in what some would consider an upscale neighborhood. I truly feel for those who'll have to wait longer than I.


2. I'm very curious about what US lawmakers think they can materially achieve in the long term with the The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006
, which was reportedly steamrolled through the House last week and has now been sent to Pres. Bush for signing. The Bill once and or all criminilazes the operation of Internet Gaming sites in and/or for US residents. This is the result of a decade-long, Republican-led effort to combat Internet Gaming (except online horseracing [huh????]). I won't go into major details here, you can see much more detailed analysis from experts in articles like this (thanks, Ronald, for shooting that one over :).

For a bulk of that 10-year period, the rhetoric justifying an all-out ban on Internet gaming has centered around the protection of US citizens/residents from the destructive effects of gaming. Minors have often been the poster people for those needing protection from gambling operators and, presumably, themselves. Fingers have been pointed at the fact that college kids can easily log on and indulge in underage gambling. They want to protect the children.

Well, I'm glad that the Party that covers up the online (specifically, lewd emails to young Washington pages) activities of pedophile congressmen is truly concerned about protecting their children.

But the above is just a soapbox thing I've added for effect. The language of the prohibitionists now hovers around the cause du jour, terrorism. Yep, those dirty suicide bombers are gonna use online casinos to launder their terror cash. I'd like to make a prop bet right now that the moment some random would-be terrorist wins a big pot in a $10/$20 NL cash game, he'll unstrap that dynamite belt and join our degenerate gambling, capitalist ranks.

The above paragraph was a joke, I think.

From what I've read, it seems the Act really goes after the middle man - the financial organizations like banks, credit card processors, and e-wallets - to curb the "problem". I guess this is an admission that they can't effectively go after offshore operators, or invade each of the sovereign jurisdictions licensing and regulating e-gaming. Well, they can go after the operators, they've arrested three execs already upon arrival on US shores; but these guys can avoid getting busted by simply hiring better travel agents. Oh, they're also putting a burden on ISPs to block access and links to gaming sites. LOL...I remember this tactic when porn was a hot topic a few years back. I'm pretty sure it didn't work ;).

Ok, so the US banks will comply, to the point that it remains economically feasible for them to do so. I'd love to see that Big Bank Board Meeting now:

Chair: "I move to create 200 full-time positions to scrub every $50 fund transfer to an online site, or alternatively, we can spend a few million bucks to automate the process. All in favor..."

Instead of making millions from online gaming transactions, which some banks assuredly do, this Act will now cost millions.

But the Act has hit home. It's shaved, no, lopped $7 billion off the industry's value. Perhaps that's the one thing they wanted to achieve.

In the short term though, they'll be costing thousands of people their jobs, suck real dollars out of the economies of sovereign nations that regulate egaming, and generally fuck a lot of people over.

This is just another "War on ____". In the 20s, they prohibited alcohol. In the 80s, we saw a War on Drugs. Now, we're in the midst of a War on Terror. The War on Internet Gaming is just another in that string, and will likely end up like all of them - with uninteded consequences worse than the original problems.